Off since July 17 for the All-Star Game and Paris Olympics, the 2024 WNBA season resumes tonight with a trio of games, starting with the Phoenix Mercury (13-12, 5-8 away) visiting the Chicago Sky (10-14, 4-8 home) at Wintrust Arena at 7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET.
Despite already playing 25 of their 40 regular-season games, this will be Phoenix s first of three meetings with Chicago this year, which means it s a homecoming of sorts for longtime Sky superstar Kahleah Copper, who was traded to the Mercury in the offseason after seven seasons in the Windy City.
Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Predictions
Mercury moneyline (-135) at DraftKings
Kahleah Copper under 24.5 points (-140) at bet365
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Copper is having the best season of her career in orange and purple, averaging a team-high 23.2 PPG and helping a Mercury team that won just nine games all of last season to keep their collective nose just above .500. Her 2024 performance was so impressive that she elbowed her way onto the hyper-competitive US Olympic team alongside teammates Brittney Griner and 42-year-old Diana Taurasi.
The Mercury s big three of Copper, Griner, and Taurasi are the only players in this game who have seen meaningful game action in the last month and, as such, I expect them to have considerably less rust to shake off than the Chicago vanguard. Additionally, Chicago traded second-leading-scorer Marina Mabrey to Connecticut during the break, in exchange for a 2025 first-round pick and two veterans (Rachel Banham, Moriah Jefferson).
Both teams entered the Olympic break going 5-5 in their last ten and 2-2 in their last four but Chicago s long-standing struggles at home have me leaning to the more-talented-on-paper Mercury. Not only is Chicago just 4-8 at home this year, they were a dismal 7-13 at Wintrust Arena last year (compared to 11-9 on the road). They ll also be adjusting to life without Mabrey, their most-prolific three-point shooter. While she may not have been a great fit alongside leading scorer Chennedy Carter, she was the only Chicago player averaging more than one make per game from beyond the arc (2.3 per game at 34.8 3P%).
Despite backing the Mercury to cover, I also like the under on Copper s massive point total of 24.5. Not only is that a shade above her season average (23.2), it s also well below her median point total. In the first 25 games this year, Copper stayed under 24.5 in 14 (including the last two) and only went over in 11. And one of the overs came in a double-OT game when she only had 21 points in regulation.
Mercury vs Sky: Best Odds
