With Drew Brees jumping into the red-hot pickleball space and retired head coach Sean Payton putting his feet up (before picking out homes in Dallas), no one would have blamed the New Orleans Saints for tearing down the Mardi Gras float in 2022.
But, with veteran defensive coordinator Dennis Allen taking over the head coaching reigns and long-time Payton staffer Pete Carmichael calling the offense, it’s business as usual in the Big Easy. That means pushing for a postseason spot.
The Saints’ NFL odds are split on the success of NOLA this season, with a break-even win total and the playoff props projecting a fight to the finish for New Orleans. Can the good times continue to roll in the Crescent City? We find out with our New Orleans Saints 2022 betting preview.
New Orleans Saints futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +4,000 |
| To win conference | +2,000 |
| To win division | +400 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 8.5 (Under -120) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +120 / No -140 |
Best futures bet: Under 8.5 wins (-120)
As noted above, oddsmakers are on the fence when it comes to New Orleans’ win total. Some spots, like bet365, have it as low as 7.5 (Over -170), other shops are dealing 8.5 (Under -125) and some are goldilocking it — just right — at 8 wins (Over -135).
Running down the standard SOS, QB SOS, and tricky schedule spots, on top of the uncertainty around the coaching changes, Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas’s health, and Alvin Kamara’s pending suspension, you clearly see six wins and can comfortably stretch it to eight for the Saints, but I think that’s it.
Nine wins would put New Orleans in the playoff mix but the postseason props do lean toward the Saints missing out on the tournament. That New Year’s Day battle in Philadelphia (another club on the cusp of the playoff projections) is going to be huge.
Allen and the rest of the remaining staff soften the blow of losing Payton this offseason, but there will be times in which New Orleans misses his masterful coaching edge.
New Orleans Saints betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
Allen was a no-brainer for head coach and that promotion also keeps continuity among one the best stop units in the NFL. The Saints have long been the standard in run defense and now complement that brick wall with a nasty pass rush and a talented secondary.
This defense can take away the ground game and force foes to run a one-dimensional offense. That plays into the hands of a stop unit that has recorded 36 total interceptions and 91 sacks the past two seasons. NOLA already ranked 22nd in my QB SOS and that chaos will make even the elite passers nervous.
New Orleans’ defense finished second in EPA allowed per play and No. 3 in DVOA at Football Outsiders in 2021 and didn’t lose much in the way of personnel this offseason. The Saints were 9-8 against the spread last year and allowed 20 points or less in six of those ATS victories.
What will lose bets: Quarterback play
Smart bettors hate small sample sizes, so it’s tough to go all-in on a stellar seven-game stretch for a QB coming off a torn ACL — especially when that quarterback’s past exploits give us a rather large sample size of inconsistency. So, which Jameis Winston shows up this season?
Winston made us forget about Brees in his brief time in 2021, playing the role of modest game manager (averaging just 167 yards per outing) but connecting for 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions before going down in Week 8. From there, New Orleans was counting on Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Ian Book under center. It went from 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) with Winston to 4-6 SU (5-5 ATS) without.
Winston limped without a knee brace in OTAs but didn’t miss a snap and he’s got a ton of weapons around him. The price is right ($1.2 million base in 2022) and the ceiling is high, but can the former No. 1 overall pick stay healthy and focused enough to complement the efforts of the defense?
More Covers NFL betting analysis
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New Orleans Saints game-by-game odds
Early lookahead lines had NOLA as a favorite in only five games with one pick’em (Week 16 at Cleveland OTB), projecting 5.5 wins — a 2.5-win difference compared to the Saints’ opening win total of 8 (Over -130). However, as other books rolled out early-bird spreads and the markets matured, we now find New Orleans as the betting chalk in six games with one PK.
The Saints were handed the seventh toughest schedule in SOS rating and have some nasty clips of the calendar, including playing only one home game in the opening four weeks (includes a London showcase) and a home stretch that sees four of the final six outings away from the Superdome. But considering this squad started last season 5-2 after being displaced due to a hurricane, I think they can handle it.
The Saints did, however, rank out just 22nd in the QB SOS, which measures the quality of opposing passers faced. That was one of the biggest differences in standard SOS vs. QB SOS for any team in the league. So, while the travel sked is shite, the level of competition may not be as stiff as you think.
| 1 | @ Atlanta | -5 | 42 |
| 2 | vs. Tampa Bay | +3.5 | 47 |
| 3 | @ Carolina | -2.5 | 41 |
| 4 | vs. Minnesota (UK) | +1 | 45.5 |
| 5 | vs. Seattle | -6.5 | 43 |
| 6 | vs. Cincinnati | PK | 44.5 |
| 7 | @ Arizona | +3 | 47 |
| 8 | vs. Las Vegas | -2 | 46.5 |
| 9 | vs. Baltimore | +2.5 | 44.5 |
| 10 | @ Pittsburgh | +1 | 41.5 |
| 11 | vs. L.A. Rams | +3 | 48 |
| 12 | @ San Francisco | +5.5 | 42 |
| 13 | @ Tampa Bay | +7 | 47 |
| 14 | BYE | ||
| 15 | vs. Atlanta | -7 | 42 |
| 16 | @ Cleveland | OTB | OTB |
| 17 | @ Philadelphia | +3 | 43.5 |
| 18 | vs. Carolina | -5 | 42 |
New Orleans Saints pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
You could easily make a case that this is a Top-3 roster surrounding their quarterback. If Winston is just average, this is a playoff team. I bet them 20-1 to win the NFC as well as many other wins-related bets.
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